Diagnosing Park Government's New Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia
 
By Yoon Sung-suk, Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations
 
 
 
 
The world has undergone a transition from Cold War bipolarity to global system of interdependence. The global system comprises more diverse actors-from NGOs to ethnic groups to bigger multinational corporations. New means of global interdependence have also emerged from the Internet to global financial networks. Especially leaders in weaker states today are facing a crisis, one whose resolution is still uncertain. Although significant changes are indeed altering the landscape of international politics and challenging national interests, states continue to make decisions that shape the nature of global political economy. What will be the ostensible characteristics of the South Korea's diplomacy under the first female presidency?
Diplomacy was not the most important issue of the 18th Korean presidential election while rival candidates harshly debated on the economy and welfare. The present international politics in Northeast Asia will constrain the Park administration to put top priority on diplomacy and national security. Abe will try to transform Japan from a peace state to a normal state equipped with overt military power. The United sates and China will vie for global hegemony more fiercely within this region than anywhere else in the world. The new government must perform a nice balancing act between the pro-China and the pro-USA options in national security. From China's geo-strategic perspective, the new Park government should limit the coverage of the US-Korean military alliance within the boundary of the Korean Peninsula. Taking a regional role beyond the Peninsula will encroach into China's strategic sphere.
It is a striking coincidence in the history of Northeast Asia that four nations-China, Japan and the Two Koreas all have new leaders recently. China's Xi Jinping is a son of Mao's revolutionary aide and Abe is a rightest politician with a conservative family background. Also, Park and Kim, Jong-Un are both the offspring of ex-ruler. To speak broadly, three issue-areas seem to be the major locus of regional concerns: territorial disputes, economy, and security including North Korea factor.
 
Each leader faces the common task of ensuring peace and stability in Northeast Asia. But the prospects for coprosperity are not that bright given the deepening conflicts over territorial disputes. Rather the outlook is murky, since extent territorial disputes surrounding the Dokdo islets and Aiaoby/Senkagku islands will continue to escalate the region's tensions. Ties between Japan and China have been deteriorating as have those between Seoul and Tokyo. Many people including businessmen warn that without overcoming inherent conflicts arising from such history books and territory affairs, there will be no hope for economic cooperation or tripartite FTA settlement between China, Japan and Korea. In the same vein, I predict that Abe, Xi and Park are likely to act in a restrained manner in the interim. Park and Abe will try to mend ties between the neighboring countries strained since President Lee's surprise visit to the Dokdo islets in last August. They are far more interested in bolstering economic reforms at the moment than finding an immediate resolution to territorial questions.
Their leadership pedigree will also be evaluated based on economic performance. The three countries account for about 20 percent of global economy. Japan was once the economic powerhouse in the region. That the outgoing democratic party government failed to improve the sluggish economy brought rightist Shinzo Abe back into premiership. China and even South Korea are now challenging the Japan's position. Leaders even including Kim, Jung-un of the North Korea are recently eager to adjust to this new reality by focusing on domestic economic growth over other foreign policy goals.
North Korea factor is also expected to profoundly affect the region's dynamics due to the North's dangerous testing of nuclear and long-range missile programs until the last December of 2012. President-elect Park will be confronted with both crisis and opportunity in terms of the inter-Korean relationship. Hostility and distrust between the two Koreas remain at an all-time high because of President Lee's hard-line policy toward the North. North Korea's erratic acts of violence and flamboyant threats have negatively affecting the crisis situations on the Peninsula. The Sunshine policy by both Kim Dae-jung and Noh Mu-hyun governments failed to induce North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program despite the increasing outcomes of non-political exchanges. The Lee Myung-bak government annulled the predecessors' inter-Korean policies. The six-party talks have now been deadlocked since December 2008. Two events in 2010, the sinking of the Cheonam corvette and Yeon-pyeong bombardment escalated inter-korean military confrontation to a dangerous level.
 
To avoid a major catastrophe, the current crisis should give way to detente soon. Various programs of long-run peaceful coexistence between the two Koreas should be institutionalized. People have lots of expectation as for Park's campaign pledge of a Korea process calling for restoring trust between the two. By more actively approaching North Korea, President Park can ameliorate security concerns greatly even with the advantage of conservative mandate. Inter-Korea detente will produce peace dividends by reducing military spending but opening up the last huge land of economic opportunity for the two Koreas.
Above all, the north must refrain from any further provocations in additional nuclear or missile test. It has reported that new regime under Kim is likely to conduct its third nuclear weapons test in the near future. The two Koreas would rather conduct tension-reducing measures over a long-period of time, even when tension-increasing conflicts flare up elsewhere. These initiatives must also take advantage of mutual interests and self-restraints. Additionally, opportunities from cooperative enterprises are most likely to be reciprocated and should be started early on. In these regards the summit meeting between the top leaders can be made within the early period of Park's presidency. Both Park and Kim are willing to improve ties, and put the improvement of national economy ahead of all else.
Besides any breakthrough will require nods from our allies, and depends on how eager and tenacious leaders and people are. The governments in other six-party states, especially both the United States and China, can hardly afford to pay much attention to the Korean question providing special chances to enhance the South-North relations further.
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