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About the Future of the Middle EastISIS issue is more complicated according to the international geopolitics
Ha Young-sig, Journalist  |  tribune1968@cnumdia.com
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승인 2015.04.30  15:15:55
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     The situation of the Middle East world is getting more complicated since Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) emerged on the stage and started expanding its territory and showing the most primitive and brutal atrocities in the modern time. Nobody can deny that the map of the Middle East is also changing and, furthermore, the political map of whole world is changing too.
     Now the war in Yemen shows that Muslim world is in the more or less a sectarian war situation between Sunnis and Shiites. The strongest Shiite country is Iran and the strongest Sunni country is Saudi Arabia. Two countries have been in conflicts for the view of Islamic religion for centuries. That’s the reason why the war in Yemen is so called “proxy war” between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
     As usual, all the international powers got involved in this muddy swamp for their own interest. While USA and UK are supporting Saudi Arabia, Russia is supporting Iran. Simply saying that Sunnis are supported by USA, but Shiites are supported by Russia. Anyhow, there is no frontier for weapon business. Saudi is the best client for USA and UK in weapon business as well as in the petrol business.

   
▲ Kobani refugees who fled Kobani from the attacks by ISIS

     ISIS issue is more complicated according to the international geopolitics. First of all, ISIS is Sunni Muslim group supported with funds and military needs by Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Arab Emirates, which proclaimed ‘Caliphate’. ISIS started from Al Qaida in Iraq since Iraqi war, which was begun by USA invasion in 2003. Of course, Al Qaida’s already existed since Afghan war. The core elements of Al Qaida of Iraq, one of them was Al Baghdadi who is self proclaimed Caliph, were put to jail shortly by USA military in Iraq. Those elements of Al Qaida in Iraq were Sunni militants and when Sunni government, Saddam Hussein regime, was collapsed and replaced with Shiite government by USA, they started violent campaign against USA and Shiite government. Al Qaida of Iraq had been carried out many terrorist attacks against Shiite government personnel and Shiite civilians and American military soldiers. In spite of those hard attacks for many years, the results were not so successful as they expected.
     After Arab’s spring started in the Middle East world in 2010, the wind even hit the Assad regime. Assad harshly cracked down on the Sunni uprisings, then the Syrian civil war started in 2011. Jihadists from all over the world could not miss this chance like the fish met the water, starting to come to Syria. There were money and weapons and plenty of reasons to fight for Sunnis. Assad regime is minority Allawites, close to Shiite, supported by Iran and Russia. Western countries, USA and Europe have been always against Assad regime, supporting anybody, including Jihadists and Al Qaida, whoever was fighting against Assad regime in the name of “democracy” with money and weapons. There is no mystery how ISIS came out and gained its ground over Iraq and Syria. That’s why some scholars, including Noam Chomsky, pointed out USA as the creator of ISIS. But there is a dilemma for USA as world dominant empire. USA cannot just make money from selling weapons and petrol business and go away from Middle East world, but has to control this region in order to control the whole world by petrol business, which occupies a half of the whole world petrol production.

   
▲ Yezidi refugees who fled Northern part of Iraq, now living in the refugee camp in Turkey

     The biggest mistake ISIS committed was to invade Kurdish territory, northern part of Iraq and the Syrian Kurdish area. Since last June, ISIS tried to attack Kurdish Yezidis in the northern part of Iraq near Mosul and showed cruelest examples of human atrocities, which made the whole world furiously enraged. Then, the whole world marked ISIS “the enemy of the humanity” or “the enemy of the world”. ISIS brutality’s already made themselves failure in the war. With support of USA’s air strikes Kurdish regained territory in Kobani and ISIS was expelled from that area since the end of January.
     Now in Iraq and Syria USA military is still bombarding ISIS military bases. But what USA is showing to the world is completely self contradictory action. After the invasion to Iraq, USA was to set up Shiite government after Sadam’s government, which is very close to Iran. In actual sense, Iran is the enemy of USA and Israel. In order to get rid of ISIS from Iraq, USA needs Iran’s hand. But the war in Yemen doesn’t easily allow USA to be in good terms with Iran because of Saudi’s aggressive acting. Another contradiction in USA policy is to sell weapons to Saudi and Turkey and the other Arab countries. But surely are those weapons flowing in to ISIS hands, even concerning about Israel’s security matter with those weapons. Then are those weapons used for atrocities against humanity committed by ISIS. As a result, the world strongly demands USA to strike ISIS, therefore USA is forced to strike ISIS.
     Sooner or later, we will see the changed map of Middle East. If ISIS carries on expanding its territory ceaselessly, the war will go on anywhere in the Middle East. But if ISIS regime changes the policy more controlled and more negotiable, then Syria-Iraq would be divided into 4 countries, small Syria led by Assad, ISIS in the middle, Kurdistan in the north of Iraq, and small Iraq. But nothing’s sure and clear about the future of the Middle East.

By Ha Young-sig, Journalist

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